The numbers we used
The starting point is Cotality's Home Value Index for houses, as at 30 September 2026 (released 1 October 2026). These are median values across each whole city. They are model estimates, not sale prices, and certainly not a valuation of any particular home.
The assumptions, all illustrative:
- A 20% deposit, which is the usual point where lenders stop charging lenders mortgage insurance.
- Saving $2,500 a month, or $30,000 a year, starting from zero.
- No interest on savings, no pay rises, no tax. Real life adds some of these and takes away others.
- Buying costs are not included. Stamp duty, legal fees and inspections come on top. More on that below.
The formula is simple:
Years to save = (20% × median house value) ÷ $30,000
The table
| Capital | Median house value | 20% deposit | Years to save, prices flat | Years to save, prices growing 5% a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,466,060 | $293,212 | 9.8 | Never catches up |
| Melbourne | $915,119 | $183,024 | 6.1 | 9.9 |
| Brisbane | $1,146,078 | $229,216 | 7.6 | Never catches up |
| Adelaide | $990,531 | $198,106 | 6.6 | 11.8 |
| Perth | $1,017,734 | $203,547 | 6.8 | 12.5 |
| Hobart | $790,406 | $158,081 | 5.3 | 7.7 |
| Darwin | $747,252 | $149,450 | 5.0 | 7.1 |
| Canberra | $1,006,269 | $201,254 | 6.7 | 12.2 |
Medians from Cotality, September 2026. Years are rounded to one decimal place. The growth column is an illustration, not a forecast.
Why growth stretches it so much
With prices flat, the target sits still and you walk up to it. With prices growing, the target walks away from you.
In the growth column we used:
- Savings after n years = $30,000 × n
- Deposit needed after n years = 20% × today's value × 1.05^n
You reach the deposit at the first point where savings are at least the deposit needed. We checked it month by month.
Take Melbourne. Prices flat, it's about six years. At 5% growth the deposit target rises by about $9,150 in the first year, and by a bit more each year after that. Your $30,000 a year still gains on it, but more slowly, and the finish line ends up close to ten years away, by which time the deposit needed is about $297,000 rather than $183,000.
Sydney and Brisbane are the uncomfortable rows. On a Sydney median, 5% growth adds about $14,700 to the deposit in year one. That gap widens every year, and by around year 15 the deposit target is growing by more than $30,000 a year on its own. On these assumptions, saving $2,500 a month never closes the gap. Brisbane follows the same pattern, just more slowly.
This is the same effect we describe in Should you invest before you buy your own home?: home prices grow on a large base, savings grow on a small one.
A reality check on the assumptions
Five per cent a year is a round number for illustration. Prices don't move in straight lines, and they don't move together. In the 12 months to September 2026, Cotality's house index fell 8.2% in Sydney and 7.3% in Melbourne, while Perth rose 10.0% and Darwin 9.6%. A flat or falling stretch makes saving easier for a while. A strong stretch makes it harder.
Other things shift the answer too:
- Money already saved. Starting with $150,000 rather than zero changes the picture a lot.
- Interest on savings and pay rises help, especially over ten years.
- A cheaper target home. A median covers a whole city. The home you actually want could sit well above or below it.
- A smaller deposit. The federal 5% Deposit Scheme lets eligible first home buyers buy with less than 20% without lenders mortgage insurance, within price caps. See First home buyer schemes and investing first.
Buying costs come on top
A 20% deposit isn't the whole cheque. Stamp duty is usually the biggest extra cost, and at these price levels it adds a large sum to the cash you need. First home buyer concessions reduce or remove it below certain thresholds, and investors pay the full rate. Our short piece on stamp duty for investors explains how it works, and each state revenue office has a calculator.
What this table can't tell you
It can't tell you your year. That depends on your savings, your income, your borrowing capacity and the home you actually want. The Escape Plan takes your own numbers and shows the year saving alone gets you there, and the year investing first might, with the costs and tax built in. Sometimes saving wins. It's worth knowing which before you decide anything.
Sources
- Cotality, "Home Value Index, October 2026" (results as at 30 September 2026), October 2026
- Cotality, "Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September", October 2026
- Housing Australia, "First Home Buyers FAQ" (5% Deposit Scheme), October 2026
General information only. Nothing on this site takes into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it is not financial, credit, tax or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.